Road deaths will be almost eliminated in developed nations by 2040

Mobility will be cleaner, safer and more efficient than ever as fossil-fuel vehicles shift to vehicles with electric engines, advanced technology in autonomous cars transforms road safety, and vehicles will become more of a software platform, according to a new report from Allianz Partners

Paris, France (Jan. 28, 2020) – It is predicted that by the year 2040, the number of road deaths in developed countries will be close to zero, while road traffic accidents will be significantly reduced. Autonomous vehicles will become the norm and smart streets and highways will transform the network infrastructure. That’s according to the new ‘Mobility of the Future’ report from Allianz Partners, which predicts that mobility across the world will become cleaner, safer and more efficient than ever over the next 20 years.

‘Mobility of the Future’ was launched today as part of ‘The World in 2040’ futurology series. Authored by internationally renowned futurologist, Ray Hammond, it presents likely future developments and trends expected to transform the global mobility industry between now and 2040. Allianz Partners commissioned the report to help them anticipate the mobility-focused needs of their customers over the coming decades. Allianz Partners is a world leader in B2B2C assistance and insurance solutions, delivering global protection and care, and offers dedicated mobility and insurance products and services to automotive manufacturers and mobility providers through the Allianz Automotive brand.

Commenting on the report insights, Ray Hammond said: “There are four major trends which are shaping the future of mobility and driving governments to intervene now in order to abruptly change the future of road transport and, in turn, the future of cities. These are: the rapid increase in urban air pollution; climate change; the falling cost of renewable energy generation; and the developments in vehicle battery technology.”

The report identifies key trends which will collectively revolutionize the mobility landscape by 2040.

Advances in technology and impact on safety

  • The best news is that there will be very few major traffic accidents and few severe injuries and deaths on the road.
  • ‘Driver-assist’ technology such as automatic braking, pedestrian sensing, forward collision warning, lane departure warnings, blind spot detection and driver alertness monitoring will help the general public learn about the developing phases of self-driving automation and demonstrate that autonomous vehicles will actually be far safer than cars driven by humans.
  • Long-distance and goods vehicles will be self-driving, allowing for manual control when a vehicle must make a rural journey to an area that lacks smart roads and network infrastructure.
  • Tech companies like Apple, Google and Uber may compete in the future of transport with current automotive manufacturers, as cars will be built around IT and software.

Changes in car ownership and mobility consumer behavior

  • Most city dwellers in developed countries will no longer own a private car but will become subscribers to mobility instead.
  • For short journeys, city dwellers will increasingly adapt to electric cycles and scooters supplied via sharing schemes.
  • Inside driverless vehicles, passengers will be able to use journey times to work, play, sleep, socialize (locally and remotely), indulge in virtual travel, or to educate themselves.

Changes in vehicle engines

  • Fossil fuel powered vehicles will shift to electric cars.
  • Driverless electric taxis will meet the public’s transport needs, bringing passengers to their destination for a price equivalent to today’s bus fares.

Need for security systems

  • It will be vital that strong cyber security systems must be built into the road traffic networks to prevent vehicles and roads being disrupted.
  • It’s likely that in 2040, traffic police forces will largely be replaced by traffic cyber security forces who will focus on keeping our roads and all forms of automotive transport safe from malicious or criminal interference.

Claudius Leibfritz, CEO Automotive and Member of the Board of Management at Allianz Partners acknowledged that different developments in society, business and technology are driving a tremendous change in the mobility landscape. “This report highlights the impact that increased urbanization, environmental concerns, technology, changing patterns in car ownership and mobility consumer behavior will have long term on the automotive industry.

For insurers this means a paradigm shift – but an exciting one, leading to a future where mobility will be cleaner, safer and more efficient. At Allianz Automotive we actively support this evolution by offering new products and service solutions for the emerging mobility ecosystem to meet changing customer needs. Connected, Autonomous, Shared, Electric (CASE) is the new normal for the industry, and we are continuously developing solutions in close collaboration with our automotive manufacturers and mobility provider partners.”

“While drivers are becoming subscribers to mobility rather than owners of cars, Allianz Automotive is not only offering traditional products but we also extend our portfolio to innovative and more service- and convenience-oriented solutions for our customers. We are already intensively working on relevant new developments, such as the increasing demand for services for fleets. The rise of intermodal mobility requires smooth and seamless mobility services for the individual instead of just the protection of property and assets. And we see a change in liability as manufacturers’ liability gains in importance. Also, while the increasingly sophisticated technology of autonomous vehicles will on the one side decrease the frequency and severity of accidents, on the other side cyber security and cyber insurance will become more important than ever. The insights from this report are invaluable in terms of highlighting our customers’ potential future needs, to allow us to strategically continue to plan for the future of our business.”

Access the Report

Read the full ‘Mobility of the Future’ report.

For more information on Allianz Automotive, visit


Ray Hammond discusses his predictions for the future of mobility:

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About the Report

‘Mobility of the Future’ is part of ‘The World in 2040’ series from Allianz Partners Group. The series includes a number of reports, which are being released throughout 2019, focusing on what the world will look like in 2040 in the context of the Group’s specific areas of expertise: international health, assistance, automotive and travel insurance.

The content of the series is based entirely on the views and opinions of futurologist Ray Hammond, based on his experience in predicting likely future developments. The content does not necessarily reflect the views of Allianz Partners or Allianz Assistance but was commissioned as part of the Group’s commitment to proactively embrace the future. The insights and findings will be used to spark ideas, debate and conversation on what the future may look like in the context of the business; enable the Group to anticipate the needs of customers in years to come; and stay ahead of the curve in terms of understanding the trends and innovations that will impact each of the business lines and bring the Group forward into the future.

The World in 2040 series is available here.

About Futurologist Ray Hammond

Ray Hammond has almost 40 years of experience writing and speaking about the trends that will shape the future. He was awarded a U.N. Gold Medal for Services to Futurology in 2010. Ray’s long record of accurate foresight is unique in Europe and he is now living in the future he first described almost 40 years’ ago. Ray now provides keynote speeches, lectures and workshops for companies, governments and universities all over the world. He has delivered guest lectures at Oxford University’s Oxford-Martin School, CASS Business School and Lund University. Ray is also an elected Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts (FRSA).

About Allianz Automotive

Allianz Automotive provides a broad portfolio of insurance and mobility services to automotive manufacturers and mobility service providers. Driven to add value and benefit for our business partners, we deliver customized products and service solutions for motor insurance, warranty, assistance and ancillary products. We partner with over 50 car brands in more than 30 countries, providing solutions that can be embedded seamlessly inside client ecosystems. Our innovative experts go beyond insurance, focusing on technological mobility trends to anticipate and respond to changing consumer needs and behaviours. Allianz Automotive is a specialized brand bundling the automotive business of Allianz Partners.

About Allianz Partners

Allianz Partners is a world leader in B2B2C insurance and assistance, offering global solutions that span international health and life, travel insurance, automotive and assistance. Customer driven, our innovative experts are redefining insurance services by delivering future-ready, high-tech high-touch products and solutions that go beyond traditional insurance. Our products are embedded seamlessly into our partners’ businesses or sold directly to customers, and are available through four commercial brands: Allianz Assistance, Allianz Automotive, Allianz Travel and Allianz Care. Present in 76 countries, our 21,500 employees speak 70 languages, handle over 65 million cases each year, and are motivated to go the extra mile to help and protect our customers around the world. For more information, please visit

Source: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS)

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