Toronto, ON (May 6, 2021) – The Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and the Society of Actuaries are pleased to share the results of the 14th annual Emerging Risks Survey. Conducted by Max J. Rudolph of Rudolph Financial Consulting LLC, the survey incorporated a set of Emerging Risks defined by the World Economic Forum as the basis for several questions.
The 14th Emerging Risks survey provides a snapshot of risk management preparedness, showing how teams are preparing for the worst while strategizing for the best outcomes.
The year 2020 provided risk managers with much to think about, so much so that the record setting tropical storm and wildfire seasons went virtually unnoticed by respondents, overshadowed by events such as the coronavirus pandemic, market volatility, and one of the warmest years in recent history.
Climate change maintained its lead in three of the four survey questions, but Pandemics/infectious diseases increased its current risk result from 2% in the previous survey to a leading result with 45% (second place is Climate change with 11%) and now is in the top five for each question. The Climate change risk has stabilized, as shown for the top five emerging risks question in Figure 2, dropping slightly to 50%. It was also the highest response for top emerging risk (26%) and combination risk (9% of all the risks chosen, in combination with another risk). Disruptive technology risk continues its rise and can be found in the top five for all questions except current risk.
Cyber/networks risk has fallen out of the top five for top emerging risk as risk managers seem more comfortable managing the risk within their recurring process, but it remains a popular choice across all questions.
The top current risks are:
- Pandemics/infectious diseases (45%),
- Climate change (11%)
- Financial volatility (6%),
- Wars (including civil wars) tied with Cyber/networks (4%)
Respondents have spread out the top five current risks across all five categories.
Access the full report on survey results
Download the report here: 14th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks Key Findings.
Video
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About the Survey & Methodology
The Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and the Society of Actuaries are pleased to make available results from the 2020 Emerging Risks Survey, the fourteenth in the series. Conducted by Max J. Rudolph of Rudolph Financial Consulting LLC, the survey incorporated a set of Emerging Risks defined by the World Economic Forum as the basis for several of the questions. The survey also included questions related to current risk management topics.
Now available is a report presenting the major findings from the study. The full report will be released later in the year.
The 14th Survey of Emerging Risks tracks risk-manager thoughts on the topic beyond the normal planning cycle, trending them over time and seeking strategic implications. It is sponsored by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA), the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). Questions are both quantitative and qualitative, enabling consistency from year to year and allowing evolving risk management practices to be shared. The survey responses, especially the comments, give risk managers a way to network anonymously with peers and share the new ways they are thinking about risk.
Respondents are asked to choose the top current risk, top five emerging risks, top emerging risks, and three sets of two-risk combinations from a list of 23 risks that have been allocated to five categories. The categories include economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological risks. The survey goes on to ask questions about practices related to leading risk indicators, enterprise risk management, and current topics. Open-ended qualitative questions are often used to compile current thoughts about risk management practices directly from risk managers.
The survey, completed in November 2020, included 188 participants. The anonymous online survey was primarily North America-based (89%), with additional responses from Europe, Asia, Australia/Pacific, South America, Africa, and the Middle East.
Not surprisingly, the current survey saw a surge in responses to the Pandemics/infectious diseases risk. It is now top ranked when respondents are asked about the top current risk with 45% selecting it. Going back to 2009, when the question about current top risk was added, Figure 1 shows that previous pandemics of H1N1 influenza in 2009 and Ebola in 2014 did not connect with respondents as strongly as COVID-19. This is not surprising as recent pandemics had little financial impact in the developed world, and lockdowns of various length have been common in 2020.
About the Canadian Broker Network
The Canadian Broker Network is an alliance of leading independent insurance brokerages representing more than $1.8 billion in property casualty premiums as well as employee benefits and life and financial services, with over 50 offices across Canada and more than 1,500 employees. We give independent, employee-owned brokerages a unique way to grow and innovate their businesses by leveraging the collective wisdom, experience, and connections of our members. For more information, please visit canadianbrokernetwork.com.
SOURCE: Canadian Broker Network
Tags: actuaries, emerging risks, rankings, survey, top risks
