Homeowners and Private Passenger Auto Lines Exert Greatest Impact on Reserve Cycle
New York, NY (May 5, 2014) – Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, the leading global risk and
reinsurance specialist and member of Marsh & McLennan Companies, has released an updated analysis of industry reserves.
Based on 2013 annual statutory statements, Guy Carpenter has updated their analysis of the reserve
cycle by examining accident year data for eleven lines of business. According to the analysis,
workers compensation reserves appear to be improving, despite noted deterioration over the last
year. Similarly, medical professional liability and commercial multi-peril lines appear to be making
tentative turns to show greater reserve release in accident year 2012 than expected. Conversely,
other lines such as commercial auto liability continued to exhibit deterioration.
“Guy Carpenter looks at the reserve cycle differently, by studying reserve movements by accident
year, rather than financial year,” said Jessica Leong, Lead Casualty Specialty Actuary. “By analyzing
the cycle the same way actuaries do – by accident year – the trends are clearer. We can help our
clients better understand the drivers of the cycle and navigate through it. According to our analysis,
accident year 2013 shows more releases than accident year 2012, not less, as we had been
expecting.”
A major driver of the continued release of reserves can be attributed to homeowners and private
passenger auto lines, which are responsible for 70 percent of the improvement for accident year
2012. However, there is a lack of a clear cycle for short tailed lines, which makes it challenging to
predict whether accident year 2013 will continue to show releases in 2014.
“The somewhat random movement of the reserve cycle for short tailed lines of business, such as
homeowners and private passenger auto lines, makes it harder to predict what the future holds for
the 2013 accident year,” said Leong. “However, long tailed lines such as workers compensation,
medical professional liability and commercial multi-peril, also released more reserves for accident
year 2012 than for accident year 2011. That is much more interesting, since these long tailed liability
lines are very cyclical.”
About Guy Carpenter
Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC is a global leader in providing risk and reinsurance intermediary services.
With over 50 offices worldwide, Guy Carpenter creates and executes reinsurance solutions and delivers capital
market solutions* for clients across the globe. The firm’s full breadth of services includes line-of-business
expertise in agriculture; aviation; casualty clash; construction and engineering; cyber solutions; excess and
umbrella; excess and surplus lines; life, accident and health; marine and energy; medical professional liability;
mutual insurance companies; political risk and trade credit; professional liability; property; retrocessional
reinsurance; surety; terrorism and workers compensation. GC Fac® is Guy Carpenter’s dedicated global
facultative reinsurance unit that provides placement strategies, timely market access and centralized
management of facultative reinsurance solutions. In addition, GC Analytics®** utilizes industry-leading
quantitative skills and modeling tools that optimize the reinsurance decision-making process and help make the
firm’s clients more successful. For more information, visit www.guycarp.com.
Guy Carpenter is a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies (NYSE: MMC), a global
professional services firm offering clients advice and solutions in the areas of risk, strategy and human capital.
With 54,000 employees worldwide and annual revenue of $12 billion, Marsh & McLennan Companies is also
the parent company of Marsh, a global leader in insurance broking and risk management; Mercer, a global
leader in talent, health, retirement, and investment consulting; and Oliver Wyman, a global leader in
management consulting.
*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US
registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000.
Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe)
Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of
Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates
owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any
security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product.
**GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
